The More I Compare Obama To Trump, The More Mystified I Am

Not in terms of their personalities, which are as apple pie is to a rotten apple — in terms of the voting support they gathered.

I am listening to Barack Obama reading his memoirs, Volume 1. (Thanks to Audible. Am I allowed to say that?). Obama is honest, self-effacing and warmly human and delivers the reading in that unmistakable voice. I am wondering, as many must do, whether that 22nd Amendment which limits anyone to two terms as President of the US, was such a good thing. If Obama had been the Democ Party candidate in 2016, perhaps the USA might have dodged the orange bullets which have wounded and defaced the country for four miserable years. As do many, many people, I also wonder whether the orange moron would have made it to the White House if anyone-but-Clinton had been his opponent. Nothing new there. The ridiculous Electoral College system actually gave the presidency to Humpty Trumpty because the anyone-but-Clinton effect played a distinct and obvious part.

But what intrigues me is how in key states, enough of the voting public gave Obama two terms, and then did a complete political somersault to allow Trump to sneak a victory. The Electoral College numbers are interesting:

In 2008, Obama beat Cain 365 to 173 — a margin of 192 and won the popular vote

In 2012 Obama beat Romney 332 to 206 — a margin of 126 and won the popular vote

In 2016 Trump beat Clinton 304 to 227 — a margin of 77. Always remembering that in 2016, Clinton quite easily won the popular vote.

(in 2020, Biden beat Trump 306 to 232 — a margin of 74)

In passing, can anything be learned from the steadily decreasing margins of Electoral College victory? I am not sure, aside from their pointing ominously to the Great American socio-political divide.

For Trump to have achieved that win in 2016, key states had to flip from Democratic to Republican. In 2020, for Biden to win, the same thing had to happen in reverse. How is this happening when the Republican Party is supposedly tarred with the brush of rampant capitalism, lower taxes, help for the rich and crumbs for the poor — while the Democrats are accused of socialism, bleeding hearts, anti-business. Neither picture is the whole picture of course, but seen from the viewpoint of the average voter, there is an almost built-in leaning towards one or other generalised image. Or is it simply tribalism, inherited from parents? Possibly, but what took the parents one way or the other, back when?

But not the Clinton effect, nor the cyclical teeter or totter (see-saw here in Britain) are enough to explain why people who voted for Obama, faced with someone who could not have been more different, voted for the Great Orange Bigot. In enough numbers in enough places to be threatening to run America’s experiment in democracy off the road.

I am not a psephologist nor am I an expert on market surveys and polls. So I am not going into bore you into analyses of why this percentage or that margin of error. The generality of my point of view is focused upon the almost fantastical difference between Obama and Trump. So different in every possible way that not the most addled or borderline-insane writer of fiction could have made him up and expected him to be even slightly believable.

Not forgetting, of course, that in the 2020 election, some 70 million people voted for him. Not enough, thank heavens and not in the places that mattered — but 70 million all the same.

I think I know why people voted for Barack Obama, despite accusations of inexperience, with an apparently Muslim name and black. Listening to him explain the tough road to the White House, I can see why he won even in hard-white states where, on the face of it, the very idea of a black president should have sent voters running for cover. What I can’t see is how so many voters then abandoned any interest in decency, honesty and dignity and stood with Trump who exhibited not merely none of that but the exact opposite on all counts. And then those voters did another about-turn to give Joe Biden his many-time-earned key to 1600 Penn Ave. A return to sanity? Perhaps, but my mind insists on taking me back to Obama and Trump.

Millions of words have been written and spoken on the subject of Trump. But what they do is describe him and what he wrought. Little if anything on explaining him and it. That is for minds mightier than mine.

I just don’t get it. The sheer absurdity of the contrast defeats me.

From an educated man to an utter ignoramus

From an articulate, calm speaker to a ranting lunatic with a severely limited vocabulary

From a self-effacing modesty to a blasting boastful braggart

From absolutely total refusal to appoint any of his family to office, to rampant nepotism

From a workaholic to the laziest president that ever was

From a dedicated politician who understood how the Federal government works, to a Donald-come-lately with no idea at all

From a family man, true to his wife, to a serial adulterer who clearly hates and abuses women

From someone who strove to keep his campaign promises to someone who just didn’t and couldn’t

From a man whose family overcame racism to the most racist and bigoted of men

From someone who walked with dignity to a man who could strut sitting down

From someone with a sense of humour to a bad-tempered grump

From decency, honesty and honour to disgrace and infamy

How did America allow this to happen?

Assuming and frankly, hoping that the imminently-ex-president will soon be wearing an orange prison suit to match his face and will not be contesting anything in 2024, what will the Republican Party do?

It would be like trying to replace Phineas T Barnum with any fairground barker from Anywhere, USA. Donald Trump was a one-off demolition derby. His like, we must all hope, will not come again.

And an afterthought: I wonder how much better, or worse, Barack Obama would have done had he changed his name to Barry O’Bama? Plenty of names like that in Ireland. O’Gara. O’Hara. O’Mara. Actually, he did just fine with what he has. But perhaps if he had done a name change he might have been able to game the system and stand for a “first” term. Silly. But even here in Britain, we miss him, we really do.